Is the Drop in Bitcoin Its Final Wave?

Is it likely that the recent drop in bitcoin is Wave 5 – also known as the “final wave” – in the downtrend? Or is there another more likely interpretation. We look at the facts.

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About the Author: Alessio Rastani


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  2. Alessio. It is a third wave…but it is the 3rd wave of the 5th. The other problem with your count is that you have not noted that this is a corrective wave. The corrective structure is ABC. A has 3 or 5 waves, B has 3 waves, and C has five waves. This is not reflected in your chart at all. According to my count we are in wave 3 of 5 of C of the ABC correction.

  3. I find that in people’s pride, they don’t want to sell. They’ve been saying HODL, and don’t want to relent. But at some point they’ll jump. I was a long time holder but even I pulled out to see what will happen (for what it’s worth, it was an enormous sigh of relief). I told my wife if it hits a certain value, I’ll go back in. Too much risk, too much speculation, too much global uncertainty. I love the technology and it’s here to stay, but I wasn’t willing to lose my initial substantial investment. What i did to better my stand was get into a community of beginner and expert traders called the "Fidelity Traders" headed by Joseph Civello and his team where i receive daily signals and trade patterns/strategy which are so easy to use and has proved indispensable to me as a trader. His demo sessions are also awesome and i have made very good profit trading with Joseph's system. You can contact him ( Josephcivello3 @ gmail com )WhatsApp >> + 1 (631) 364-4612.

  4. The current trend of hodling currency for life from a financial point of view is a wrong strategy for profiting. There is a major difference between stocks which can be based on professional advice held and currencies (cryptocurrency) and this is because most of them are hypes and highly speculative. I myself have made over $80,000 in the last 2 months day trading my btc which i am sure would be a fantasy if i where hodling. I used a trading system developed by Mr Joseph Civello and with his trade pattern and signals, i am aiming for greater highs. If you have any inquiries, you can reach him on via ( Josephcivello3 @ gmail com )WhatsApp >> + 1 (631) 364-4612.

  5. Bitcoin has been suffering greatly as of late, but is it possible for the father of crypto to sink even lower? According to most analysts, the answer is an unfortunate “yes.This is a serious nosedive from last week’s not-so-prominent $6,300, but even that is looking pretty good by comparison. In addition, Bitcoin is not showing any signs of momentum, nor does it appear poised for a strong recovery, and technical analysts believe the worst is yet to come. If bitcoin drops below $4,000 which is very likely, the next and possibly ultimate target for Bitcoin will be $3,000, which is a full 100 percent retrace of the 2017 move that led to BTC reaching its all-time high near $20,000. Just as much as people all over the world are crying over the fall in bitcoin, i am still making good profit and just cashed out $38,000 in profit from my portfolio 3 days ago. I am giving this message cos i want to help as much people as i can from this crypto love that will make millions of people go broke long-lasting regrets. I will recommend Mr Wesley Williams (willssley@gmail) for you when it comes to all crypto related issues cos he is someone that has helped me tremendously on my financial journey. He thought me how to find a great broker and not just use the popular demand, he also provides me with trade signals which has helped me better understand entry and exit and the reasons for those points, he also introduced me to a winning strategy he created specially for very bearish conditions which the markets are currently experiencing.

  6. Simple, logic, rational predictions, not emotional like many out there. Thank you Alessio… 5 days ago you predicted a free fall to 4k and it did happen because you studied the market rationally instead of using your emotions. This is a digital market not a love story.

    I'm not saying this guy have a crystal ball he can be wrong like any other trader but hes predictions are logical and that's what we need, Rational thoughts. Never though ill subscribe to a crypto channel but i just did.

  7. Without having a clue about Elliot waves, it may not be a mere wishful thinking to say that this is wave 5, considering that Bitcoin has corrected 79% from its all time high. Historically speaking, it doesn't need to go lower before we see a reversal.

    Personally, I expect to see at least a retest of 6000-6300 in the coming weeks, due to the steep decline we've just had. But breaking through that level may indeed be too hard. So I'm leaning towards next year being more of the same. Down, down, down. I foresee a fall to 2500 around april, and going as low as 1000-1200 toward the end of next year. Crazy, right? But that's when I think a solid and long lasting uptrend will finally form. This prediction is based on the weekly chart and I use a Gann fan.

    I'm not thinking about the fundamentals or news. I love bitcoin and the altcoin markets deserve a boost. But at the same time, the glory of crypto has suffered a blow, now that governments are intervening with tax requirements. And the banks, with their futures and ETF's and what not, will do everything to avoid pumping the price while they accumulate their bitcoin. Besides, they're thinking of ways to break bitcoins neck now, more than ever, and they may do this "peacefully" by introducing derivatives all over the place and keeping the actual asset all to themselves, once they've accumulated it.

    Well, I don't know how this is going to play out and I'm not a financial advisor. 😉

  8. If Bitcoin is still in a long-term bull market, this correction must be seen as an A-B-C correction, in Elliot wave terms. If the bull market is over, then a 1-2-3-4-5 wave pattern can be seen. To me, this looks like the start of wave C down. As long as we do not violate the $1,000 level, Bitcoin is still in a bull market.

  9. Thanks for the content Alessio! I really think we should all take a moment to realize the recent drop in BTC is abnormal meaning no one expected this to happen so quickly (as you mentioned). With this said we should use extreme caution when attempting to predict the next move in BTC particularly to the downside. To put this in perspective it would take approximately 75 – 100 Billion (from today's current market cap) to recreate the market back above heavy resistant levels and hold. If this can be accomplished ("hint" no one is expecting this to happen in such a short period of time) it may set off a premature FOMO rally that will more then likely fail and then of course we continue on this bloody journey.

  10. The Elliott wave theory says that every correction of a trend is in 3 waves and not 5 !!!, at least they can be 5 only if it is a triangle (which is not), each one of these 3 waves can be made by 5 waves: zigzag: 5-3-5, flat: 3-3-5. So your theory that a correction is made of 5 waves shows you don't know the Elliott wave theory and you shouldn't use this term. Call it Rastani waves theory :))

  11. Hi Alessio

    Thanks so much for your time. I like concepts you introduce and encouragement of further independent learning. It’s so hard to make sense of what to bother to listen to or look at, and you’re a great compass.

    One thing I wanted to ask; over the last few videos you’ve been bullish on bitcoin, noting the recursive fib retracements, the seasonality and the ‘coiling’. (Of course you were also mentioning the flip story). Then, after we dropped past major support and the hope of the rally faded, you introduced the idea of Eliot waves and us being in a wave three.

    Does this mean that we were mistaken in being bullish before and just missed the wave, or are the theories interacting in a way I’m missing?


  12. Dear BITCOIN…am sorry I was aware of your existence in 2010 and didn’t look into you a bit more then, I listen to the media who stated you were a Chinese scam!!! You capture my focus in December 2017 when you reach $20,000. I started buying you then.Ever since I started buying you started falling.. are you punishing me?? For the sake of my fellow men I will sadly exit the space even though I desperately need the finance, I will make this sacrifice for everyone else.. I will exit on the 20/11/2020………BUT We all know that Nov-Dec are the Best months in the History of Bitcoin, its about that Time of the year where Bitcoin gets to Sky Rocket, so many people are ignorant, they are staying on the sideline, waiting for a move up and the right time to get in. I suspect that the rise will happen in a very short period of time, leaving those waiters behind and their reaction will push the price even higher, so that they will end up under water when btc is consolidating, I know the price will speed up more, then bleed off and have an extended winter and actually go lower than current lows… Then as it goes higher, All we need to do is invest what we’re Holding and make more profit, So we don’t feel the lost in fall of price when it happens again, I discovered a comment of someone giving Accolades to Boyd Riddle and also thanking him for helping him increase his Portfolio from having 3.4BTC to 16BTC So i contacted him, Behold I have made 20Btc in less than one month with his working strategies, if you have lost so much during fall or want to increase your portfolio like me, Reach him on *Email/hangout( thank me later

  13. The last 2 months, I have made over $60,000 from Bitcoin but my success never started that way as I had made substantial losses before my turning point in the Crypto space. I bought 2Btc last year which quickly rose in the bull run but eventually lost most of it and sold off what was left. That was the last I would ever have to do with bitcoins until I was introduced to Adams Hudson first of, he asked to know my trade experience. He then gave me a quick insight on what to look out for when choosing a platform and a bunch of other things most experienced traders may never tell you. Most importantly, he introduced me to his specially designed layout and provided me with professional advice and accurate trade signals. With his system, trading has become easy and profitable and I just want to spread the word and thereby help as many that are in my previous unfortunate situation. For all questions, you can reach out for his help on (Adamshudsons@gmail. com)

  14. to me it looks like the masses lost confidence in bitcoin and a small concentrated group of people that made a lot of money are trying to hype it back up. If the credit card companies let people buy bitcoin on credit then it will go back up….

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  16. The current market for bitcoin is highly unstable and the trajectory is generally downward which spells danger for most investors but then, this is still a very good time to make money off crypto if you know what to do. Value will continue to go down as support is weak and continue to dip but even with this trend that has been persistent for some time now, i made over $43000 in the past 2 weeks and i was able to do this by day trading with a strategy crafted by Mark Hall for a market as such. You can reach him for inquiries (markhall279@gmail. com) on how you can make profit quickly off your coins which you have lost on already by hodling or as a new investing plan entirely. He would guide you on what to look out for when choosing a broker, how to identify and implement your entry and exit points accurately and how to be consistent in profit. The best thing about him is he provides you with free signals for a limited period to validate the market and also his strategy. Trading has become easy and profitable for me and i want to make this available to others in my previous unfortunate position by spreading the word.

  17. Way overcomplicating tech analysis. Flat bottoms, lower highs = buyers aren't willing to pay a premium because it's crap. The fall was totally predictable.

  18. My apologies for my previous comment about Alessio, I agree if you think it was rude and inappropriate. It might sound controversial, but I actually like him personally. What I am concerned about is the quality of his videos, and I think that you should be too, if you recall the nonsense about seasonality and its implications on the current Bitcoin price action, being contrarian, Elliot indicators etc. (just to mention some recent gems). Many unskilled people who are seeking for orientation/education end up with channels like Alessio`s and it is highly problematic if their knowledge is based on such education.
    Youtube is a business (we are talking about 165K subscribers in this case), inevitable interest of the content creators to get the most followers by creating the impression of giving value… Alessio can create the impression of a professional and I am genuinely curious how he can achieve this…
    Best luck for all of us, we have difficult times and we would need valuable knowledge to navigate through it…

  19. Sir, surely the cleanest way to TA Bitcoin would be via log scale, which has us in a fifth wave, looking for bottom. Trying to trade off Elliot wave in this market environment is just not practical IMHO. Others may disagree. I feel there’s far too much manipulation and too little volume to get any kind of accurate count. When daily volume consistently exceeds 10 Billion again, I’ll start applying EW. Until then, I don’t feel it has much use outside of being nice to know.

  20. Elliott does not conceive of a correction consisting of five waves. A correction does always consist of three waves. Thus, the major downside movement we have been going through for so long is a three-wave movement. We are experiencing Wave 3 now. There is no other wave in this major downside movement. In this major downside journey there exist five-wave submovements to the downside and three-wave subcorrections. This is what I see in my Elliott book. And this is also what I see in the BTC chart.
    Schematically, the major runup of BTC was made of five waves: 0-1, 1-2 2-3 3-4, and 4-5. The major rundown (major downside movement or correction) is 5A, AB, and BC. We are in BC. Presumably, somewhere at the end of segment BC.

  21. Hi Antonio. I saw your wave count as an impulse 5 from All Time High of BTC. This 5 impulse is in fact the A wave of a ABC correction pattern? Thank you.

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