When can Bitcoin realistically reach $1 Million?




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About the Author: Benjamin Cowen

39 Comments

  1. The answer is never. This is nothing but masturbation based on wishful thinking of people who don’t understand that crypto is a digital Marxist scam. You so called ROI comes out of the pockets of other people usually small investors. It’s deeply unethical

  2. 21 Million x 1 Million = 21,000,000,000,000… that's 21 trillion market cap. That's essentially the US national debt at the moment. It's unlikely the debt will be replayed. It's unlikely bitcoin will hit 1 million anytime soon. That said, if the dollar is further devalued, and we start having $1,000,000 dollar paper bills that can only buy a loaf of bread, then yes, bitcoin can hit a million dollars. But in this case, bitcoin is essentially worth a loaf of bread, even though technically speaking it's a million dollars.

  3. I hope you’re right. I’m saving for Disneyland now, and it will take me two years to save it. When it two years is up I will sell my bitcoin, take a vacation, and the rest remains in Bitcoin. I make my own coffee, and invest that too. A millionaire just bought 11 Bitcoin. In other words a millionaire just purchased 20 other millionaires allotment. It’s not gonna take much awareness to destroy the average Joe’s ability to buy a bitcoin. Or even 1/2 of a BTC, putting them in the 1% of wealth.
    When millionaires casually enter in, the ability of hundredaire’s, and thousandaires, ability is over. The 40% of boomer’s, and 60% of millennials, can’t come up with $400 cash in the United States. Drive for Uber, 3 days per week?

  4. A better question, are you accumulating? No money? I make my own coffee. What will you be HODL’ing when it moons again? What will you be HODL’ing at the next halving?

  5. I don't think we have enough data points to extrapolate this kind of model yet. I don't think the first peak can really count because it did not follow a halving event. Measuring from peak to peak doesn't make sense to me. It seems to me that it makes more sense to measure the peaks in terms of the amount of time since the previous halving. (How much time passed from the day of the halving to the peak of the following bull market.) It seems that measurement would give us a better predictive model as to the approximate date of the next bull market peak. Truthfully, the performance of Bitcoin following the next halving will be what makes or breaks the 4 year cycle model. We just don't have enough data yet.

  6. $1m in purchasing power is not difficult to achieve.

    One problem im seeing with your chart is that you’re relying heavily on past performance to chart out your prediction.

  7. ???? Things that the model doesn't account for, which may accelerate the bubble:

    1. S-Curve adoption may accelerate, have a kink upwards in middle of chart

    2. Quantitative Easing is going nuts… negative interest rates + printing money may push BTC price higher

    3. Network effect… is hard to measure by humans, even in a model..

    ????

  8. ???? The 2032 mark looks to be a "Bitcoin fair value" region …

    Perhaps the 2028-2030 bubble would touch it but crash back.

    Only time will tell, 10 years to go ????

  9. The argument of 4 year cycle is the mining reward halvening cuts that happens every 4th year. After all, the miners are the only Group in the crypto space that are forced to sell coins to pay electricity/hardware etc. It might change when there is no need for converting bitcoins into fiat in order to pay those expenses but as long as it is like we have now, it will be 4 year cycle.
    By the way, I think the halvening is not priced in before halvening. My arguument for this is that the price follows supply and demand. Right now there is certain amount of coins to be sold/day. After halvening that amount has been suspended, but the price does not immediately start rising because the miners have some inventory which keep the price down for a while after the halvening before the shortage kicks in.

  10. I believe in the stock to flow model. I'm pretty convinced that Bitcoin will be worth minimum 100 k by the end of 2021.for the stock to flow theory to be "invalid" the price of Bitcoin should be less than 55 k by the end of 2021

  11. I really like this vid. I think It should be different like you are saying but 2019 has been far more volatile then anyone thought. And that is because most people in this space are just Emotionally driven . That is why all that $ pored into BTC starting in April and that tells me that 2020 and 21 will be wild ! All the $ that was removed starting in 2018 in just waiting to buy BTC again.

  12. Moral is really low right now. Idk if this is bottom but it definitely feels like it. Almost feels like it might actually be over. I’m losing hope

  13. Considering QE and an ever continuous increasing negative sentiment towards paper money, I believe BTC will hit one million much sooner than you hypothesize. I’m thinking 2028 or 2029. Cheers.

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